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Markets/Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?

Market Price

1%YES
99%NO

FM Estimate

1%
Vol 24h$5
Liquidity$21K
Bid / Ask1% / 1%
Spread0.40pp
ClosesDec 9, 2026
Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market is significant as it reflects expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory over a multi-year horizon, currently priced at 1% for the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at the end of 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield's 0.7% decline suggests increased demand for long-term debt, potentially aligning with expectations of lower future interest rates.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5 has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on December 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1168833