Markets/Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

Market Price

54%YES

46%NO

Vol 24h$255

Liquidity$27K

Bid / Ask50% / 57%

Spread7.20pp

ClosesDec 9, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $255 has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 7.20pp. The market closes on December 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1168139