Markets/Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?

Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES

90%NO

Volume 24h

$95

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

3% / 18%

Spread

15.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 13, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 13, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

Edge

+4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 90¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $95 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 15.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678784