Markets/Will the US strike Nigeria next?

Will the US strike Nigeria next?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:49 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES

100%NO

Volume 24h

$78K

Liquidity

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-5.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Feb 24, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the US strike Nigeria next?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $78K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the US strike Nigeria next?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1422368

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