Markets/Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 07:23 AM UTC

Closes April 21, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

75%YES

26%NO

Volume 24h

$160K

Liquidity

$51K

Bid / Ask

74% / 75%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

75%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

74% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Current

75% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 75%99%

Buy YES@ 75¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.0%

½ Kelly1.0%

Buy NO@ 26¢

-2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?" at 75% YES / 25% NO. In the last 24 hours, $160K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 75%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 75%, NO 25%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1450859