Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?
Closes April 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$153K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
5% / 5%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in…
March 2026
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Mar 23, 2026
Current
5% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+7.5%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $153K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1439530
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