Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?
Closes April 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$10K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
15% / 20%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in…
March 2026
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
17% YES
Mar 23, 2026
Trough probability
11% YES — lowest in period
Mar 23, 2026
Biggest move: -5.5pp
17% → 11%
Mar 23, 2026
Current
13% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 24, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1439532
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Correlated Markets
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