Markets/Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Market Price

37%YES

63%NO

FM Estimate

34%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.4pp

Vol 24h$136

Liquidity$24K

Bid / Ask36% / 37%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesNov 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals-4.3pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets16 markets

16 deadline markets. Market implies ~13% chance none resolve YES.

Tom Begich

Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election

37%

Bernadette Wilson

Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor elect

24%

Nancy Dahlstrom

Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor electio

11%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

37%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $136 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/635014