Markets/Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$32K

Liquidity$1.8M

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesNov 7, 2028

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets69 markets

69 deadline markets. Combined YES = 186% — 86pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Democratic

Democratic win the Presidency in 2028

62%

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential no

26%

Tom Brady

Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $32K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561999