Markets/Will Toronto FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Will Toronto FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Data as of Mar 27, 2026, 04:32 AM UTC

Closes December 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$38K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will FC Dallas win the 2026 MLS Cup?

2026

Full event →

26 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%

½ Kelly8.3%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Toronto FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on December 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Will Toronto FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1349171

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