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Markets/Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03?
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Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03?

Closes April 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES
93%NO

Volume 24h

$90K

Liquidity

$841K

Bid / Ask

7% / 8%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

8%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $90K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1668550

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 77%, Elche CF: 21%, Toulouse FC: 8%.

Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03?
77%
Elche CF win on 2026-04-03?
21%

Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03?

8%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Current

8% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 8%99%
Buy YES@ 8¢
Edge

+6.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 93¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+6.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this