ForecastMind
Markets/Will Truist fail by end of 2026?
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Will Truist fail by end of 2026?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

41%YES
60%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$790

Bid / Ask

28% / 47%

Spread

19.00pp

Expert Signal

41%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Truist fail by end of 2026?" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 19.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Truist fail by end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1922869

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

37% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: -11.0pp

47% → 36%

Apr 12, 2026

Peak probability

47% YES — highest in period

Apr 12, 2026

Current

36% YES (-11.0pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 41%99%
Buy YES@ 41¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 60¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this