Will Truist fail by end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$790
Bid / Ask
28% / 47%
Spread
19.00pp
Expert Signal
41%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Truist fail by end of 2026?" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 19.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Truist fail by end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1922869
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
37% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Biggest move: -11.0pp
47% → 36%
Apr 12, 2026
Peak probability
47% YES — highest in period
Apr 12, 2026
Current
36% YES (-11.0pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this