Markets/Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

9%YES

91%NO

Volume 24h

$24K

Liquidity

$350K

Bid / Ask

9% / 10%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Current

9% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 9%99%

Buy YES@ 9¢

-3.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 91¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.7%

½ Kelly1.9%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/997488