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Markets/Will Trump and Putin not meet?
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Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

76%YES
24%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

75% / 76%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

76%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+16.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Trough probability

47% YES — lowest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

47%

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 5, 2026

Biggest move: +18.2pp

51% → 69%

Mar 12, 2026

Peak probability

74% YES — highest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Current

73% YES (+0.2pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 76%99%
Buy YES@ 76¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 24¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump and Putin not meet?" at 76% YES / 24% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 76%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Trump and Putin not meet?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 76%, NO 24%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/618509