Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
75% / 76%
Spread
0.90pp
Expert Signal
76%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
56% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
47% YES — lowest in period
Mar 4, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
47%
Mar 4, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
53%
Mar 5, 2026
Biggest move: +18.2pp
51% → 69%
Mar 12, 2026
Peak probability
74% YES — highest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Current
73% YES (+0.2pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump and Putin not meet?" at 76% YES / 24% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 76%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Trump and Putin not meet?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 76%, NO 24%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/618509
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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