Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Closes March 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
March 2026
3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
25% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
17% YES — lowest in period
Mar 1, 2026
Biggest move: +7.5pp
23% → 30%
Feb 28, 2026
Current
21% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1428639
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.