Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
19% / 23%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
21%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
28% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Trough probability
21% YES — lowest in period
Mar 28, 2026
Current
21% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1745523
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.