Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$59.9M
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
99%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
94% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Biggest move: +6.7pp
93% → 100%
Mar 4, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Mar 4, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $59.9M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 99%. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/572469
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