Markets/Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$59.9M

Liquidity$0

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The market's 100% probability reflects a strong consensus that Kevin Warsh will be nominated Fed chair, a development with significant implications for monetary policy and market stability given the current Treasury yield decline.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $59.9M has been traded. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/572469