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Markets/Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?
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Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$22.8M

Liquidity

$0

Expert Signal

1%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

0% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22.8M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/572480