Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Closes April 15, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$127K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
12% / 13%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $127K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1893465
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
22% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Trough probability
10% YES — lowest in period
Apr 8, 2026
Biggest move: -10.5pp
21% → 11%
Apr 7, 2026
Current
14% YES (+4.0pp recent)
Apr 8, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this