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Markets/Will Trump say "Trump-Class" or "Trump Fleet" in April?
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Will Trump say "Trump-Class" or "Trump Fleet" in April?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

15%YES
85%NO

Volume 24h

$21

Liquidity

$519

Bid / Ask

14% / 16%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

15%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Trump-Class" or "Trump Fleet" in April?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Trump say "Trump-Class" or "Trump Fleet" in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1808744

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+8.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Biggest move: +7.0pp

11% → 18%

Apr 6, 2026

Peak probability

19% YES — highest in period

Apr 6, 2026

Current

19% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 15%99%
Buy YES@ 15¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 85¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this