Will Trump say "Trump-Kennedy Center" or "Trump Kennedy" in April?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
26% / 27%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
27%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Trump-Kennedy Center" or "Trump Kennedy" in April?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Trump say "Trump-Kennedy Center" or "Trump Kennedy" in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1808745
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Biggest move: +20.5pp
7% → 27%
Apr 6, 2026
Peak probability
27% YES — highest in period
Apr 6, 2026
Current
27% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this