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Markets/Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in April?
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Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in April?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

60%YES
40%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

58% / 62%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

60%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in April?" at 60% YES / 40% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 60%, NO 40%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1808746

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+56.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Apr 6, 2026

Biggest move: +42.5pp

11% → 53%

Apr 6, 2026

Peak probability

67% YES — highest in period

Apr 6, 2026

Current

67% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 60%99%
Buy YES@ 60¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 40¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this