Markets/Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May?

Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

Vol 24h$10K

Liquidity$18K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.20pp

ClosesMay 31, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets14 markets

14 deadline markets. Combined YES = 585% — 485pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?

Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May

96%

Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?

Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May

85%

Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May?

Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.1pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2117144