Markets/Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?

Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?

Market Price

29%YES

71%NO

Vol 24h$3K

Liquidity$16K

Bid / Ask27% / 31%

Spread4.30pp

ClosesApr 30, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Combined YES = 106% — 6pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?

Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026

77%

Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?

Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April

29%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-6.1pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?" at 29% YES / 71% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 4.30pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 29%, NO 71%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1695982