Markets/Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

$59

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

5% / 9%

Spread

4.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Current

6% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 93¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $59 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 4.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1006074