Markets/Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES

90%NO

Volume 24h

$308

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

8% / 12%

Spread

3.90pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Mar 4, 2026

Current

12% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 10%99%

Buy YES@ 10¢

-2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 90¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.0%

½ Kelly1.0%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $308 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 3.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1006075