Markets/Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

21%YES

79%NO

Volume 24h

$110

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

19% / 22%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Biggest move: -6.0pp

17% → 11%

Mar 14, 2026

Current

11% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 21%99%

Buy YES@ 21¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 79¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $110 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1006076