Markets/Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

23%YES

77%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

21% / 25%

Spread

4.50pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+12.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 5, 2026

Biggest move: +9.5pp

11% → 21%

Mar 17, 2026

Peak probability

24% YES — highest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Current

23% YES (+0.4pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 23%99%

Buy YES@ 23¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 77¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 4.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1006077