Markets/Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

19%YES

81%NO

Volume 24h

$665

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

18% / 20%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

17% YES

Mar 6, 2026

Trough probability

9% YES — lowest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Biggest move: -8.5pp

17% → 9%

Mar 6, 2026

Current

19% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 19%99%

Buy YES@ 19¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 81¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $665 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1006078