Markets/Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

20%YES

80%NO

Volume 24h

$27

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

18% / 22%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-12.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

39% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Trough probability

14% YES — lowest in period

Mar 9, 2026

Biggest move: -18.0pp

33% → 15%

Mar 7, 2026

Current

27% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 20%99%

Buy YES@ 20¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 80¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1006079