Markets/Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:01 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

50%YES

50%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

Expert Signal

50%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-8.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

59% YES

Feb 23, 2026

Trough probability

25% YES — lowest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

25%

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: -34.5pp

60% → 25%

Feb 28, 2026

Peak probability

66% YES — highest in period

Feb 25, 2026

Current

50% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 50%99%

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Buy NO@ 50¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US or Israel strike Iran first?" at 50% YES / 50% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will US or Israel strike Iran first?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1178277