Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.3pp above current market price; market at 58% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.6% ↑, VIX +2.2% ↑, Gold -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$187K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
7% / 8%
Spread
0.70pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $187K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709080
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
63% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
33%
Apr 10, 2026
Biggest move: -25.4pp
59% → 33%
Apr 10, 2026
Current
9% YES (-11.3pp recent)
Apr 10, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this