Markets/Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes May 5, 2026

Polymarket Price

94%YES

7%NO

Volume 24h

$355

Liquidity

$35K

Bid / Ask

93% / 94%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

94%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor…

2026

Full event →

the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele

94%

the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele

3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

95% YES

Mar 8, 2026

Current

95% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 94%99%

Buy YES@ 94¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.7%

½ Kelly3.8%

Buy NO@ 6¢

-7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $355 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 94%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/836181