⊘

Market Closed

This market has resolved. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?

Share on X

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$8K

Liquidity$30K

Bid / Ask100% / 100%

Spread0.20pp

ClosedMay 5, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republica

100%

Casey Putsch

Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican p

—

Philip Funderburg

Philip Funderburg win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republi

—

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.20pp. The market closes on May 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/836181