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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
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Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

95%YES
5%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

92% / 99%

Spread

7.50pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 7.50 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1668579

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

97% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Current

100% YES (+4.6pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 95%99%
Buy YES@ 95¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 5¢
Edge

+2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO—+2.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this