Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$91K

Liquidity$161K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedMay 2, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

YES

Market resolved

Price swing

73pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$91K

24h total

Liquidity

$161K

Market depth

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

+71.5pp

Why this matters

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $91K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2019013