Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25?

Market Price

20%YES

80%NO

Vol 24h$109K

Liquidity$276K

Bid / Ask18% / 19%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedApr 25, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets20 markets

20 deadline markets. Combined YES = 779% — 679pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Fulham FC

Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25

100%

Deportivo Alavés

Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-25

95%

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25

20%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $109K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1953331