Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
2026
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
0% YES
Mar 17, 2026
Biggest move: -12.1pp
14% → 2%
Mar 19, 2026
Peak probability
14% YES — highest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Current
3% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-10.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1122887
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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