Markets/Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 06:27 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

98%YES

2%NO

Volume 24h

$230K

Liquidity

$53K

Bid / Ask

98% / 98%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

97% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

98% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 98%99%

Buy YES@ 98¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly14.9%

½ Kelly7.4%

Buy NO@ 2¢

-14.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 14.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $230K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1040944

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.