Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Closes December 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$241
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
1%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
12 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 16, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-23.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $241 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/682712
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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