Markets/Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

6% / 8%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 93¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/996333