Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
April
Consensus Probability
18%
Weak5%
Polymarket43% avg · 6 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | 6% | $272K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | 37% | $29K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | 49% | $28K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | 22% | $22K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | 64% | $18K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | 80% | $16K | standalone |