Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Closes June 30, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$49K
Bid / Ask
82% / 84%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
80%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
April
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
75% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Biggest move: -8.5pp
83% → 74%
Mar 20, 2026
Peak probability
90% YES — highest in period
Mar 13, 2026
Current
79% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1571571
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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