ForecastMind

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April…

April 2026

Consensus Probability

13%
Weak5%
Polymarket23% avg · 13 markets

Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.

Outcome Breakdown

No Change62%
25bps35%
Implied total (sum of outcomes)100%

Contributing Markets

VenueMarketYESVolumeRole
PolymarketWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?0%$964Kstandalone
PolymarketWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?4%$500Kstandalone
PolymarketWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?(25bps)1%$495Kchild
PolymarketWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?(No Change)94%$254Kchild
PolymarketWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?1%$106Kstandalone
PolymarketWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(25bps)5%$40Kchild
PolymarketWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?(No Change)84%$32Kchild
PolymarketWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(25bps)11%$11Kchild
PolymarketWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?1%$9Kstandalone
PolymarketBank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?1%$4Kstandalone
PolymarketNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?(No Change)35%$803child
PolymarketBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?1%$533standalone
PolymarketBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?(25bps)64%$338child
← Back to Event Intelligence