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Markets/No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
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No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Closes April 28, 2026

Polymarket Price

37%YES
63%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

36% / 38%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

37%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April…

April 2026

Full event →
no change in Fed interest rates after the Apr
95%
no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun
86%
no change in Fed interest rates after the Jul
77%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25
61%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates a
37%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp
5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp
5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ b
3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
0%

18 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 37%99%
Buy YES@ 37¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 63¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1249980

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