ForecastMind

Will the Republican Party control the House after the…

2026

Consensus Probability

18%
Weak11%
Polymarket16% avg · 11 markets

Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.

Outcome Breakdown

No Change4%
Implied total (sum of outcomes)67%

Contributing Markets

VenueMarketYESVolumeRole
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)6%$101Kchild
PolymarketWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?51%$27Kstandalone
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)3%$27Kchild
PolymarketWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?48%$23Kstandalone
PolymarketWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?14%$4Kstandalone
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)25%$376child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)13%$287child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)6%$184child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)10%$136child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)2%$89child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)2%$67child
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