ForecastMind
Markets/Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Share on X

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

3%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$62

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by…

2026

Full event →
Will the Democratic Party control the House a
85%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate
53%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate
48%
below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm
35%
47 or fewer
26%
49
20%
Will the Republican Party control the House a
16%
between 195 and 199 House seats after the 202
14%
between 190 and 194 House seats after the 202
14%
50
13%
48
12%
51
11%
between 205 and 209 House seats after the 202
11%
between 200 and 204 House seats after the 202
10%
52
8%
between 210 and 214 House seats after the 202
7%
53
7%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds un
5%
54
4%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds ov
3%
55
3%
56
2%
between 220 and 224 House seats after the 202
2%
between 215 and 219 House seats after the 202
2%
230 or more
1%
57 or more
1%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds ov
1%
between 225 and 229 House seats after the 202
1%

28 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 13, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢
Edge

+20.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+20.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $62 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/943827

Correlated Markets

Explore all →
↓ -0.86

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

↓ -0.85

Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

↑ 0.82

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

↑ 0.82

Will Larry Ellison be richest person on March 31?

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

~

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

⊕

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

↓

Download 90d CSV

Full price history for your own analysis.