Will Pablo Arízaga win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?
2026
Consensus Probability
9%
Moderate61%
Polymarket9% avg · 4 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. Some spread between venues — treat as directional signal.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will Franz Tata García win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election? | 13% | $300 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Pablo Arízaga win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election? | 11% | $280 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Richard Moscoso win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election? | 2% | $255 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Cecilia Calani win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election? | 11% | $67 | standalone |