Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on…
March
Consensus Probability
4%
Weak5%
Polymarket20% avg · 5 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? | 4% | $207K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31? | 1% | $3K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31? | 0% | $3K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31? | 0% | $2K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31? | 95% | $1K | standalone |