Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
94% / 96%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
95%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on…
March
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
95% YES
Mar 26, 2026
Current
95% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 95%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1403723
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