Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?
April
Consensus Probability
37%
Weak29%
Polymarket44% avg · 5 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | 22% | $406K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | 63% | $135K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | 51% | $125K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | 79% | $61K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? | 5% | $53K | standalone |